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Insight - What will the US recession look like?

Insight - What will the US recession look like?

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The Fed is walking a very fine line as it must raise interest rates fast enough to cool both cost-driven and demand-pull (wage spiral) inflation and contain inflation expectations, without causing a hard landing in the US economy. Fed policymakers have warned that the entrenched inflation poses a “significant risk” to the US economy and tighter monetary policy may be needed if prices rise more than expected.(File pic: US Fed building in Washington)

GLOBAL stagflation risk, the war in Ukraine, an almost synchronisation of interest rate hikes by major central banks, and a slowdown in China’s economic growth are among the factors that have darkened the outlook of the global economy and affecting worldwide markets.

“It’s going to be a tough 2022, but maybe even a tougher 2023,” a quote from the International Monetary Fund’s chief who does not rule out the risk of a global recession in 2023 given the elevated risks.

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Three-quarters of chief executives of Fortune 500 companies are braced for growth to go negative before the end of 2023.

The latest poll of 70% of leading academic economists conducted by the Financial Times expect the United States economy will tip into a recession next year.

While the bond yields have inverted for a short while, it flashes stress economic signs ahead.

With inflation rising above 4% and unemployment rate dipping below 4%, these two thresholds indicate that the US economy is surely overheating, this warranted prompt monetary tightening and removal of money supply growth to control inflation scare.

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An overly aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) is the biggest risk.

The Fed is walking a very fine line as it must raise interest rates fast enough to cool both cost-driven and demand-pull (wage spiral) inflation and contain inflation expectations, without causing a hard landing in the US economy.

Fed policymakers have warned that the entrenched inflation poses a “significant risk” to the US economy and tighter monetary policy may be needed if prices rise more than expected.

At this juncture, it means some mixed performance of economic numbers in response to the Fed’s tightening and extended cost pressures for consumers and businesses.

Consumer inflation accelerated to a 41-year high of 9.1% in June and inflation at the wholesale level climbed 11.3% in June.

Both the manufacturing and services activities have slowed in June; retail sales spending rose in June; personal spending slowed in June along with weak housing starts, building permits and factory production.

But, the labour market is still strong. What if there is a US recession? What will the shape look like? Will it be a long, deep or moderate and less painful when comparing to 1981 to 1982 recession, and 2008 to 2009 global financial crisis?

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